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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."